CDTC developed its first
long-range transportation plan and adopted it on March 31, 1981. Routine
amendments and updates have occurred since that time through incorporating
recommendations from sub-regional studies, corridor studies, and NYSDOT project
development work. The New Visions 2025 Regional Transportation
Plan is a major update to that previous work.
New Visions focuses on travel
conditions and needs in the year 2015 and 2025.
The CDTC 2005-10 Transportation Improvement Program is consistent with
the New Visions plan.
In accordance with the
Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
(EPA) designated Albany,
Schenectady, Saratoga, Rensselaer, Montgomery, and Greene Counties as marginal non-attainment area for the 1-hour ozone standard 1991. The area was classified as attainment for all
other applicable national ambient air quality standards. An area is defined as marginal non-attainment
for the 1-hour standard when the area’s monitored design value (i.e. the fourth
highest daily 1-hour maximum value during the previous three year period) is
between 0.121 parts per million (ppm) and 0.138 ppm. The Albany-Troy-Schenectady area has not
experienced a monitored violation of the 1-hour ozone standard since 1989 and
the current design value for 1-hour ozone in this area is 0.115 ppm.
On July 16,
1997 EPA concluded the
1-hour standard did not adequately protect the public from the adverse health
effects of ground level ozone. In
establishing the new 8-hour standard, EPA set the standard at 0.08 ppm and
defined the new standard as a “concentration based” form. Specifically, the design value for 8-hour
ozone is the 3-year average of the annual 4th-highest daily maximum
8-hour ozone concentrations. An area
will attain the standard when the annual 4th highest daily maximum
8-hour concentrations is less than or equal to 0.08 ppm.
Effective June 15,
2004 the EPA classified Saratoga, Schenectady, Albany, Rensselaer, Montgomery, Greene and Schoharie Counties as a Clean Air Act Subpart 1 Basic non-attainment area for the 8-hour
ozone standard. The 8-hour ozone design
value for the area is 0.087 ppm. The
0.12 ppm 1-hour standard will no longer apply one year after the effective date
of the new designation for the 8-hour ozone standard. Therefore, both the 1-hour and 8-hour ozone
standards are in effect until June 15, 2005.
The methodology used to
evaluate air quality impacts of the TIP was developed cooperatively by the New York
State Department of Transportation and the U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency. Using this methodology, the CDTC
2005-10 TIP was found to meet the former requirements
established by the 1990 amendments to the Clean Air Act regarding the
conformity of transportation plans and programs. As demonstrated in the following narrative,
emission levels of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides
(NOx)-- the precursors to ozone formation-- are less for the TIP "build" scenario than for the
"no-build" scenario.
The methodology that was
used is described in the January, 1994 NYSDOT memorandum, Proposed Transportation Improvement Program Conformity Determination
Process Based on EPA's Final Transportation Conformity Rule. In accordance with these guidelines, regional
emissions estimates were generated by using EPA's Mobile Model 6 software for
1990 (base year), 2002, and "no-build" and plan "build"
scenarios for years 2010, 2015 and 2025.
These regional emissions rates were updated by the New York State
Department of Environmental Conservation using EPA's Mobile Model 6 software in
year 2004. The estimates of emissions
were based upon the most recent population, employment, travel, and congestion
information developed by the CDTC staff for the four counties.
The calculation of base
year (1990) travel and congestion data (VMT and speed) for the four county
Capital District regional highway network was derived from CDTC's Systematic
Traffic Evaluation and Planning (STEP) model. Using
TMODEL2 software, the regional STEP model directly generated PM peak hour VMT
and speed data attendant to existing land use, traffic, and highway network
conditions. Twenty four-hour estimates
were generated by factoring the PM peak hour trip set in accordance with
NYSDOT’s guidelines. For this exercise,
the factor used to adjust the trip set was derived from hourly traffic
distributions at more than 100 locations in the Capital District.
In order to evaluate the
impact of the TIP on emissions, the impacts of a “no-build”
scenario were evaluated. The no-build
scenario is a hypothetical scenario that would result if the TIP were not implemented. The networks used for the 2010, 2015 and 2025
“no-build” scenarios assume projects in the TIP would not be implemented.
Travel demand for the
year 2010, 2015 and 2025 "no-build" scenarios was simulated using
Capital District Regional Planning Commission (CDRPC) official forecasts of
households and employment, and CDTC forecasts of vehicle ownership. These forecasts are documented in the CDTC
reports, Forecasts of Regional Traffic
Growth for Use in the Year 2000 Needs
Estimate, November 1, 1989 and Analysis
of Year 2000 Congestion Levels in Critical Corridors of the Capital District,
October, 1993.
The year 2010 TIP/Financially
Constrained Plan network includes projects from the 2005-2010 TIP;
the year 2015 and 2025 TIP/Financially
Constrained Plan network includes all TIP
projects, including those scheduled in the post 5 year period of the TIP.
For build conditions for years 2010, 2015,
and 2025, travel demand forecasts were prepared that were consistent with
achievements expected from implementation of the New Visions plan. With full
implementation of the New Visions
plan, increases in daily vehicle travel will be dampened from the trend
forecast of 30% (1996-2015) to approximately one-third to one-half that
level. This will occur through a
combination of substitution of communication for travel, increased carpooling,
increased bus, bike, and/or walk travel, and shorter trip lengths (due to
proximity of activities). This dampening
of daily vehicle travel was represented in the CDTC STEP model as a 10%
reduction in vehicle trips in 2010 with respect to trend growth forecasts, and
as a 15% reduction in vehicle trips in 2015 and 2025. The full New Visions Plan network for 2015 and 2025 includes TIP
projects plus additional economic development and congestion management
projects; hypothetical, representative
projects were selected which do not have status in the New Visions Plan. The New Visions Plan intentionally does not
designate the additional $60 million for Congestion Management projects and the
additional $60 million economic development projects to any specific projects
at this time.
The financially
constrained plan is based on "steady-state funding". Steady state funding is the currently
expected state, federal and local funds would continue at current levels
(adjusted for inflation) through the 20-year period, and all federal demo
project funds would be received. This
scenario makes comparable progress across all plan improvement
initiatives. The financially constrained
plan is assumed to achieve comparable progress -- 71 percent -- in the
reduction in travel that would be achieved by full plan implementation.
The TIP network used in the analysis assumes that all TIP projects are implemented. All non-exempt projects were modeled, as well
as a number of exempt projects that will affect intersection capacities.
Projects programmed in the post five-year network were not included in the year
2010 TIP network, but were included in the year 2015 and
year 2025 build networks. In addition,
the year 2015 and 2025 full plan scenario was modeled that includes TIP
projects plus additional economic development and congestion management
projects, as well as VMT reduction that would result from the full
implementation of the New Visions
Plan.
EPA's Mobile Model 6
emission rates for volatile organic compounds and NOx were applied on a link by
link basis using speed and VMT estimates developed in the STEP model for each
scenario. VMT was increased by ten
percent in all scenarios to reflect summer traffic volumes, since the highest
levels of ozone are usually detected in the summer months. The Mobile Model 6
emission rates reflect the most current New York State SIP proposals for
upstate non-attainment.
Table 8 presents the
results of the emission modeling of the 2005-10 TIP and the New
Visions Plan impacts. Table 8 indicates that although vehicle miles of
travel are forecast to increase in the Capital District between 2002 and the
year 2025, VOC and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions will be reduced under all
scenarios. Reduced vehicle emission
rates are the primary cause. Compared to
the “no-build” scenario, VOC and NOx emissions will be reduced by the 2005-10 TIP by 2010, and further reduced by the Full Plan
Implementation. The analysis
demonstrated that full implementation of the New Visions Plan would result in the lowest emissions of any
scenario tested.
The analysis described
above indicates that the CDTC 2005-10 TIP and the CDTC New
Visions Plan satisfactorily meets the requirements established by the 1990
Clean Air Act Amendments regarding the conformity of transportation
programs. The analysis demonstrates that
emission levels of volatile organic compounds and nitrogen oxides -- the
precursors to ozone formation -- are less for the TIP and plan implementation scenarios in 2010, 2015
and 2025 relative to the "no-build" condition. These levels are dramatically lower than 1990
or 2002 emission levels.
Table 8
Air Quality Impacts of the TIP
and New Visions
|
Scenario
|
VOC Emissions (Kg/Day)
|
NOx Emissions (Kg/Day)
|
Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled (Thousands)
|
|
|
59,581
|
57,569
|
17,776
|
|
Year
2002
|
38,717
|
46,590
|
23,114
|
|
Year
2010 No-build
|
18,714
|
22,617
|
25,158
|
|
2010 with 2005-10 TIP and Financially Constrained New Visions Plan1
|
16,812
|
21,189
|
23,405
|
|
Year
2015 No-build
|
12,890
|
13,472
|
26,616
|
|
2015
with 2005-10 TIP and Financially Constrained New Visions Plan1
|
10,985
|
12,242
|
23,828
|
|
Year
2015 with full New Visions Plan2
|
10,366
|
11,777
|
22,786
|
|
Year 2025 No-build
|
8,990
|
6,428
|
28,589
|
|
2025
with 2005-10 TIP and Financially Constrained New Visions Plan
|
7,493
|
5,840
|
25,704
|
|
Year
2025 with full New Visions Plan2
|
7,017
|
5,609
|
24,560
|
*Table revised August 24, 2005 to reflect revised analysis for Montgomery County.
1.
The “Financially
Constrained New Visions Plan” for 2010, 2015 and 2025 includes the TIP network as well as the VMT reduction that would result from the
implementation of the financially constrained New Visions Plan. The year 2010 network includes projects scheduled
in the five-year TIP period; the year 2015 and 2025 network includes all TIP projects, including those scheduled in the post 5-year period of the TIP. It is assumed that 71% of the
VMT reduction of the full implementation of the plan would be achieved by the
financially constrained plan.
2.
“Year 2015 with
full New Visions Plan” and “Year 2025
with full New Visions Plan” includes TIP projects plus additional economic development and congestion
management projects, as well as VMT reduction that would result from the full
implementation of the New Visions
Plan.
3.
The build and
no-build emissions results for non-exempt project corridors in Montgomery County have been added to the total emissions for the four county CDTC area. These
emissions were calculated separately from the CDTC STEP Model. Montgomery County is included in the Capital District non-attainment
area.
4.
The average daily
emission reductions that will result from the Capital Region Traffic Management
Center Operations (PIN 1806.60, CDTC TIP Project RG37A), HELP (PIN 1806.61, CDTC TIP Project RG37), and the ITS Elements and Transmit Systems for Capital
District Interstates (PIN 1807.03, CDTC TIP Project RG99; includes new CCTV, VMS, the TRANSMIT Program) were
calculated separately using the CDTC STEP Model for 2010, 2015 and 2025, and
incorporated into the final numbers.