CDTC developed its first
long-range transportation plan and adopted it on
In accordance with the
Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
(EPA) designated the Capital District area as a marginal non-attainment area
for ozone pollution in 1991. This designation
was based on the fact that national ambient air quality standards were exceeded
at all three Capital District monitoring sites at some time during the
three-year period 1988-90[1]. The
Capital District has not been in violation of the National Ambient Air Quality
Standards (NAAQS) for ozone since 1989.
As a marginal
non-attainment area[2], the Capital District must show conformity of
the Regional Transportation Plan with the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, and
must abide by actions set forth in an approved State Implementation Plan. Until a new SIP can be prepared and approved,
conformity of transportation plans and programs must be based on analysis of
the potential impacts of plans, programs, and projects on air quality. CDTC used the methodology developed
cooperatively by the New York State Department of Transportation and the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency. CDTC's draft Plan, New
Visions for the Capital District, was found to meet the requirements
established by the 1990 amendments to the Clean Air Act regarding the
conformity of transportation plans. As
demonstrated in the following narrative, emission levels of volatile organic
compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOx)-- the precursors to ozone formation-- are less for the
plan build scenario than for the 1990 base year.
The methodology used to
evaluate air quality impacts of the TIP was developed cooperatively by the New
York State Department of Transportation and the U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency. Using this methodology, the CDTC
2003-06 TIP was found to meet the former requirements established by the 1990
amendments to the Clean Air Act regarding the conformity of transportation
plans. As demonstrated in the following
narrative, emission levels of hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides (NOx)
-- the precursors to ozone formation -- are less for the TIP "build"
scenario than for the "no-build" scenario.
The methodology that was
used is described in the January, 1994 NYSDOT memorandum, Proposed Transportation Improvement Program Conformity Determination
Process Based on EPA's Final Transportation Conformity Rule. In accordance with these guidelines, regional
emissions estimates were generated by using EPA's Mobile Model 5B software for
1990 (base year), 1996 (plan year), and "no-build" and plan
"build" scenarios for years 2008, 2015 and 2021. These regional emissions rates were updated
by the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation using EPA's
Mobile Model 5B software in year 2000.
The estimates of emissions were based upon the most recent population,
employment, travel, and congestion information developed by the CDTC staff for
the four counties.
The calculation of base
year (1990) travel and congestion data (VMT and speed) for the four county
Capital District regional highway network was derived from CDTC's
Systematic Traffic Evaluation and Planning (STEP) model.[3] Using
TMODEL2 software, the regional STEP model directly generated PM peak hour VMT
and speed data attendant to existing land use, traffic, and highway network
conditions. Twenty four-hour estimates
were generated by factoring the PM peak hour trip set in accordance with NYSDOT’s guidelines.
For this exercise, the factor used to adjust the trip set was derived
from hourly traffic distributions at more than 100 locations in the Capital
District.
In order to evaluate the
impact of the TIP on emissions, the impacts of a “no-build” scenario were
evaluated. The no-build scenario is a
hypothetical scenario that would result if the TIP were not implemented. The networks used for the 2008, 2015 and 2021
“no-build” scenarios assume projects in the TIP would not be implemented.
Travel demand for the
year 2008, 2015 and 2021 "no-build" scenarios was simulated using
Capital District Regional Planning Commission (CDRPC) official forecasts of
households and employment, and CDTC forecasts of vehicle ownership. These forecasts are documented in the CDTC
reports, Forecasts of Regional Traffic
Growth for Use in the Year 2000 Needs
Estimate, November 1, 1989 and Analysis
of Year 2000 Congestion Levels in Critical Corridors of the Capital District,
October, 1993.
The year 2008 TIP/Financially Constrained Plan network
includes projects from the 2003-2006 three year TIP and Plan projects scheduled
in the fourth and fifth years of the TIP; the year 2015 and 2021
TIP/Financially Constrained Plan network includes all TIP projects, including
those scheduled in the post 5 year period of the TIP. For build conditions for years 2008, 2015, and 2021, travel demand
forecasts were prepared that were consistent with achievements expected from
implementation of the New Visions
plan. With full implementation of the New Visions plan, increases in daily
vehicle travel will be dampened from the trend forecast of 30% (1996-2015) to
approximately one-third to one-half that level.
This will occur through a combination of substitution of communication
for travel, increased carpooling, increased bus, bike, and/or walk travel, and
shorter trip lengths (due to proximity of activities). This dampening of daily vehicle travel was
represented in the CDTC STEP model as a 10% reduction in vehicle trips in 2008
with respect to trend growth forecasts, and as a 15% reduction in vehicle trips
in 2015 and 2021. The full New Visions Plan network for 2015 and
2021 includes TIP projects plus additional economic development and congestion
management projects; hypothetical,
representative projects were selected which do not have status in the New
Visions Plan. The New Visions Plan
intentionally does not designate the additional $60 million for Congestion
Management projects and the additional $60 million economic development
projects to any specific projects at this time.
The financially
constrained plan is based on "steady-state funding". Steady state funding is the currently
expected state, federal and local funds would continue at current levels
(adjusted for inflation) through the 20-year period, and all federal demo
project funds would be received. This scenario
makes comparable progress across all plan improvement initiatives. The financially constrained plan is assumed
to achieve comparable progress -- 71 percent -- in the reduction in travel that
would be achieved by full plan implementation.
The TIP network used in the
analysis assumes that all TIP projects are implemented. All non-exempt projects were modeled, as well
as a number of exempt projects that will affect intersection capacities.
Projects programmed in the post five-year network were not included in the year
2008 TIP network, but were included in the year 2015 and year 2021 build
networks. In addition, the year 2015 and
2021 full plan scenario was modeled that includes TIP projects plus
additional economic development and congestion management projects, as well as
VMT reduction that would result from the full implementation of the New Visions Plan.
EPA's Mobile Model 5B
emission rates for volatile organic compounds and NOx
were applied on a link by link basis using speed and VMT estimates developed in
the STEP model for each scenario. VMT
was increased by ten percent in all scenarios to reflect summer traffic
volumes, since the highest levels of ozone are usually detected in the summer
months. The Mobile Model 5B emission rates reflect the most current New York
State SIP proposals for upstate non-attainment.
Table 8 presents the
results of the emission modeling of the 2003-06 TIP and the New Visions Plan impacts. Table 8
indicates that although vehicle miles of travel are forecast to increase in the
Capital District between 1996 and the year 2021, hydrocarbon and nitrogen oxide
(NOx) emissions will be reduced under all
scenarios. Reduced vehicle emission
rates are the primary cause. Compared to
the “no-build” scenario, VOC and NOx emissions will
be reduced by the 2003-06 TIP by 2008, and further reduced by the Full Plan
Implementation. The analysis
demonstrated that full implementation of the New Visions Plan would result in the lowest emissions of any
scenario tested.
The analysis described
above indicates that the CDTC 2003-06 TIP and the CDTC New Visions Plan satisfactorily meets the requirements established
by the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments regarding the conformity of transportation
programs. The analysis demonstrates that
emission levels of volatile organic compounds and nitrogen oxides -- the
precursors to ozone formation -- are less for the TIP and plan implementation
scenarios in 2008, 2015 and 2021 relative to the "no-build"
condition. These levels are dramatically
lower than 1990 or 1996 emission levels.
Table 8
Air Quality Impacts of the TIP and New Visions
Scenario |
VOC Emissions (Kg/Day) |
NOx Emissions (Kg/Day) |
Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled (Thousands) |
---|---|---|---|
Year 1990 |
52,182 |
59,954 |
17,740 |
Year
1996 |
55,912 |
62,234 |
20,470 |
Year
2008 No-build |
33,805 |
35,577 |
24,779 |
2008 with 2003-06 TIP
and Financially Constrained New Visions Plan1 |
30,852 |
33,892 |
23,167 |
Year
2015 No-build |
22,210 |
18,066 |
26,530 |
2015
with 2003-06 TIP and Financially Constrained New Visions Plan1 |
18,745 |
16,705 |
23,780 |
Year
2015 with full New Visions Plan2 |
17,555 |
16,159 |
22,734 |
Year 2021 No-build |
19,899 |
12,483 |
27,760 |
2021
with 2003-06 TIP and Financially Constrained New Visions Plan |
16,572 |
11,535 |
24,942 |
Year
2021 with full New Visions Plan2 |
15,455 |
11,138 |
23,796 |
1.
The “Financially
Constrained New Visions Plan” for 2008, 2015 and 2021 includes the TIP network
as well as the VMT reduction that would result from the implementation of the
financially constrained New Visions
Plan. The year 2008 network includes projects scheduled in the five-year TIP
period; the year 2015 and 2021 network includes all TIP projects, including
those scheduled in the post 5-year period of the TIP. It is assumed that 71% of the VMT reduction
of the full implementation of the plan would be achieved by the financially
constrained plan.
2.
“Year 2015 with
full New Visions Plan” and “Year 2021
with full New Visions Plan” includes
TIP projects plus additional economic development and congestion management
projects, as well as VMT reduction that would result from the full
implementation of the New Visions
Plan.
[1] Determination of the compliance of the ozone standard for the Capital
District is based on data collected at monitoring sites located at the
Loudonville Reservoir in
[2] The CDTC area
was classified as marginal non-attainment for ozone until
[3] Details concerning the regional STEP model and
its calibration are contained in a separate document, Systematic Traffic
Evaluation and Planning (STEP) Model - User's Guide and Documentation of
Applications, July, 1994.