CDTC developed its first
long-range transportation plan and adopted it on March 31, 1981. Routine amendments and updates have occurred
since that time through incorporating recommendations from sub-regional
studies, corridor studies, and NYSDOT project development work. The New
Visions 2021 Regional Transportation Plan is a major update to that
previous work. New Visions focuses on travel conditions and needs in the year 2015
and 2021. The CDTC 2001-06
Transportation Improvement Program is consistent with the New Visions plan.
In accordance with the Clean
Air Act Amendments of 1990, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
designated the Capital District area as a marginal non-attainment area for
ozone pollution in 1991. This
designation was based on the fact that national ambient air quality standards
were exceeded at all three Capital District monitoring sites at some time
during the three-year period 1988-90[1]. The Capital District has not been in
violation of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for ozone since
1989.
As a marginal non-attainment
area[2], the
Capital District must show conformity of the Regional Transportation Plan with
the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, and must abide by actions set forth in an
approved State Implementation Plan.
Until a new SIP can be prepared and approved, conformity of
transportation plans and programs must be based on analysis of the potential
impacts of plans, programs, and projects on air quality. CDTC used the methodology developed cooperatively
by the New York State Department of Transportation and the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency. CDTC's draft Plan, New Visions for the Capital District,
was found to meet the requirements established by the 1990 amendments to the
Clean Air Act regarding the conformity of transportation plans. As demonstrated in the following narrative,
emission levels of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides
(NOx)-- the precursors to ozone formation-- are less for the plan build
scenario than for the 1990 base year.
The methodology used to
evaluate air quality impacts of the TIP was developed cooperatively by the New
York State Department of Transportation and the U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency. Using this methodology, the
CDTC 2001-06 TIP was found to meet the former requirements established by the
1990 amendments to the Clean Air Act regarding the conformity of transportation
plans. As demonstrated in the following
narrative, emission levels of hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides (NOx)
-- the precursors to ozone formation -- are less for the TIP "build"
scenario than for the "no-build" scenario.
The methodology that was used
is described in the January, 1994 NYSDOT memorandum, Proposed Transportation Improvement Program Conformity Determination
Process Based on EPA's Final Transportation Conformity Rule. In accordance with these guidelines,
regional emissions estimates were generated by using EPA's Mobile Model 5B
software for 1990 (base year), 1996 (plan year), and "no-build" and
plan "build" scenarios for years 2006, 2015 and 2021. These regional emissions rates were updated
by the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation using EPA's
Mobile Model 5B software in year 2000.
The estimates of emissions were based upon the most recent population,
employment, travel, and congestion information developed by the CDTC staff for
the four counties.
The calculation of base year
(1990) travel and congestion data (VMT and speed) for the four county Capital
District regional highway network was derived from CDTC's Systematic Traffic
Evaluation and Planning (STEP) model.[3] Using TMODEL2 software, the regional STEP
model directly generated PM peak hour VMT and speed data attendant to existing
land use, traffic, and highway network conditions. Twenty four-hour estimates were generated by factoring the PM
peak hour trip set in accordance with NYSDOT’s guidelines. For this exercise, the factor used to adjust
the trip set was derived from hourly traffic distributions at more than 100
locations in the Capital District.
In order to evaluate the
impact of the TIP on emissions, the impacts of a “no-build” scenario were
evaluated. The no-build scenario is a
hypothetical scenario that would result if the TIP were not implemented. The networks used for the 2006, 2015 and
2021 “no-build” scenarios assume projects in the TIP would not be implemented.
Travel demand for the year
2006, 2015 and 2021 "no-build" scenarios was simulated using Capital
District Regional Planning Commission (CDRPC) official forecasts of households
and employment, and CDTC forecasts of vehicle ownership. These forecasts are documented in the CDTC
reports, Forecasts of Regional Traffic
Growth for Use in the Year 2000 Needs
Estimate, November 1, 1989 and Analysis
of Year 2000 Congestion Levels in Critical Corridors of the Capital District,
October, 1993.
The year 2006 TIP/Financially Constrained Plan
network includes projects scheduled in the five year TIP period; the year 2015
and 2021 TIP/Financially Constrained Plan network includes all TIP projects,
including those scheduled in the post 5 year period of the TIP. For build conditions for years 2006, 2015, and
2021, travel demand forecasts were prepared that were consistent with
achievements expected from implementation of the New Visions plan. With full
implementation of the New Visions
plan, increases in daily vehicle travel will be dampened from the trend
forecast of 30% (1996-2015) to approximately one-third to one-half that
level. This will occur through a
combination of substitution of communication for travel, increased carpooling,
increased bus, bike, and/or walk travel, and shorter trip lengths (due to
proximity of activities). This
dampening of daily vehicle travel was represented in the CDTC STEP model as a
10% reduction in vehicle trips in 2006 with respect to trend growth forecasts,
and as a 15% reduction in vehicle trips in 2015 and 2021. The full New Visions Plan network for 2015 and 2021 includes TIP projects
plus additional economic development and congestion management projects; hypothetical, representative projects were
selected which do not have status in the New Visions Plan. The New Visions Plan intentionally does not
designate the additional $60 million for Congestion Management projects and the
additional $60 million economic development projects to any specific projects
at this time.
The financially
constrained plan is based on "steady-state funding". Steady state funding is the currently
expected state, federal and local funds would continue at current levels
(adjusted for inflation) through the 20-year period, and all federal demo
project funds would be received. This
scenario makes comparable progress across all plan improvement
initiatives. The financially constrained
plan is assumed to achieve comparable progress -- 71 percent -- in the
reduction in travel that would be achieved by full plan implementation.
The TIP network used in the
analysis assumes that all TIP projects are implemented. All non-exempt projects were modeled, as
well as a number of exempt projects that will affect intersection capacities.
Projects programmed in the post five-year network were not included in the year
2006 TIP network, but were included in the year 2015 and year 2021 build networks. In addition, the year 2015 and 2021 full
plan scenario was modeled that includes TIP projects plus additional economic development
and congestion management projects, as well as VMT reduction that would result
from the full implementation of the New Visions
Plan.
EPA's Mobile Model 5B emission
rates for volatile organic compounds and NOx were applied on a link by link
basis using speed and VMT estimates developed in the STEP model for each
scenario. VMT was increased by ten
percent in all scenarios to reflect summer traffic volumes, since the highest
levels of ozone are usually detected in the summer months. The Mobile Model 5B
emission rates reflect the most current New York State SIP proposals for
upstate non-attainment.
Table 6 presents the results
of the emission modeling of the 2001-06 TIP and the New Visions Plan impacts. Table 6 indicates that although vehicle
miles of travel are forecast to increase in the Capital District between 1996
and the year 2021, hydrocarbon and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions will be
reduced under all scenarios. Reduced
vehicle emission rates are the primary cause.
Compared to the “no-build” scenario, VOC and NOx emissions will be
reduced by the 2001-06 TIP by 2006, and further reduced by the Full Plan
Implementation. The analysis
demonstrated that full implementation of the New Visions Plan would result in the lowest emissions of any
scenario tested.
The analysis described above
indicates that the CDTC 2001-06 TIP and the CDTC New Visions Plan satisfactorily meets the requirements established
by the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments regarding the conformity of transportation
programs. The analysis demonstrates
that emission levels of volatile organic compounds and nitrogen oxides -- the
precursors to ozone formation -- are less for the TIP and plan implementation
scenarios in 2006, 2015 and 2021 relative to the "no-build"
condition. These levels are
dramatically lower than 1990 or 1996 emission levels.
Table 6
Air Quality Impacts of the TIP and New Visions
Scenario |
VOC
Emissions (Kg/Day) |
NOx
Emissions (Kg/Day) |
Daily
Vehicle Miles Traveled (Thousands) |
Year
1990 |
52,182 |
59,954 |
17,740 |
Year 1996 |
55,912 |
62,234 |
20,470 |
Year 2006 No-build |
42,152 |
44,364 |
25,504 |
2006 with 2001-06 TIP and Financially Constrained New Visions Plan1 |
37,553 |
41,297 |
23,525 |
Year 2015 No-build |
22,338 |
18,114 |
26,581 |
2015 with 2001-06
TIP and Financially Constrained New Visions Plan1 |
18,756 |
16,724 |
23,739 |
Year 2015 with
full New Visions Plan2 |
17,565 |
16,184 |
22,739 |
Year 2021 No-build |
19,742 |
12,473 |
27,773 |
2021 with 2001-06
TIP and Financially Constrained New Visions Plan |
16,564 |
11,540 |
24,935 |
Year 2021 with
full New Visions Plan2 |
15,479 |
11,149 |
23,797 |
1.
The “Financially
Constrained New Visions Plan” for 2006, 2015 and 2021 includes the TIP network
as well as the VMT reduction that would result from the implementation of the
financially constrained New Visions
Plan. The year 2006 network includes projects scheduled in the five year TIP
period; the year 2015 and 2021 network includes all TIP projects, including
those scheduled in the post 5-year period of the TIP. It is assumed that 71% of the VMT reduction of the full
implementation of the plan would be achieved by the financially constrained
plan.
2.
“Year 2015 with full New Visions Plan” and “Year 2021 with
full New Visions Plan” includes TIP
projects plus additional economic development and congestion management
projects, as well as VMT reduction that would result from the full implementation
of the New Visions Plan.
[1] Determination
of the compliance of the ozone standard for the Capital District is based on
data collected at monitoring sites located at the Loudonville Reservoir in
Albany County, Skidmore College in Saratoga County, and Mont Pleasant High
School in Schenectady County. The
compliance status is determined by the most recent three consecutive years of
air quality data; non-attainment is designated if the standard of 0.12 ppm (one-hour
average) is exceeded three times over the monitoring period.
[2] The CDTC area was classified as marginal non-attainment for ozone until June 18, 1998, when EPA revoked the 1–hour ozone standard. In the intervening 18 months, CDTC has not been subject to regional conformity requirements. However, the 1-hour standard was again in place as of January 16, 2001, and CDTC’s non-attainment status was again in effect.
[3] Details concerning the
regional STEP model and its calibration are contained in a separate document,
Systematic Traffic Evaluation and Planning (STEP) Model - User's Guide and
Documentation of Applications, July,
1994.