The Capital District, formerly designated as a marginal ozone non-attainment area, is presently designated as an attainment area for ozone. The change in designation occurred because the previous one-hour standards for ozone were revoked by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). New standards were established which are based on air quality conditions measured over an eight-hour period. Data is not yet available to classify the Capital District based on the new standards. EPA therefore considers the Capital District to be an attainment area. Because of this, an air quality conformity statement is not required for the CDTC TIP. However, in cooperation with EPA and NYSDOT recommendations, a regional emissions analysis of the air quality impacts of the CDTC TIP is presented that is similar to the previous conformity analysis. This regional emissions analysis is presented for informational purposes only.

In accordance with the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, the U.S Environmental Protection Agency designated the Capital District area as a marginal non-attainment area for ozone pollution in 1991. This designation was based on the fact that national ambient air quality standards were exceeded at all three Capital District monitoring sites at some time during the three-year period 1988-90. Based on the previous one-hour ozone standards, the Capital District has not been in violation of the ozone standards since 1989.

In 1998, the EPA adopted new National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for ozone. Because the previous one-hour standards were revoked, the Capital District was designated as an attainment area for ozone standards. However, there is still a possibility that in the future the Capital District could be designated as non-attainment for ozone based on the new eight-hour standards. In the interim period, until the attainment of the new standards is evaluated for the Capital District, CDTC will evaluate the air quality impacts of the TIP using the methodology previously used.

The methodology used to evaluate air quality impacts of the TIP was developed cooperatively by the New York State Department of Transportation and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Using this methodology, the CDTC 1999-04 TIP was found to meet the former requirements established by the 1990 amendments to the Clean Air Act regarding the conformity of transportation plans. As demonstrated in the following narrative, emission levels of hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides (NOx) -- the precursors to ozone formation -- are less for the TIP build scenario than for the "no-build" scenario.

The methodology that was used is described in the January, 1994 NYSDOT memorandum, Proposed Transportation Improvement Program Conformity Determination Process Based on EPA's Final Transportation Conformity Rule. In accordance with these guidelines, regional emissions estimates were generated by using EPA's Mobile Model 5B software for 1990 (base year), 1996, and "no-build" and plan "build" scenarios for years 2005 and 2015. The estimates of emissions were based upon the most recent population, employment, travel, and congestion information developed by the CDTC staff for the four county region. The conformity analysis is explained in more detail in a separate CDTC document, Capital District Air Quality Conformity Finding for the 1997-02 Transportation Improvement Program.

In order to evaluate the impact of the TIP on emissions, the impacts of a "no-build" scenario were evaluated. The no-build scenario is a hypothetical scenario that would result if the TIP were not implemented. The networks used for the 2005 and 2015 "no-build" scenarios assume projects in the TIP would not be implemented. Travel demand for the year 2005 and 2015 "no-build" scenarios was simulated using the CDTC STEP Model based on trend conditions.

For build conditions for years 2005 and 2015, travel demand forecasts were prepared that were consistent with achievements expected from implementation of the New Visions plan. With full implementation of the New Visions plan, increases in daily vehicle travel will be dampened from the trend forecast of 30% (1996-2015) to approximately one-third to one-half that level through a combination of substitution of communication for travel, increased carpooling, increased bus, bike, and/or walk travel, and shorter trip lengths (due to proximity of activities). This dampening of daily vehicle travel was represented in the CDTC STEP model as a 10% reduction in vehicle trips in 2005 with respect to trend growth forecasts, and as a 15% reduction in vehicle trips in 2015 with respect to trend growth forecasts.

The financially constrained plan is based on "steady-state funding" -- levels of currently-expected state, federal and local funds would continue at current levels (adjusted for inflation) through the 20-year period, and all federal demonstration project funds would be received -- and making comparable progress across all plan improvement initiatives. The financially constrained plan is assumed to achieve comparable progress -- 38 percent -- in the reduction in travel that would be achieved by full plan implementation.

The TIP network used in the analysis for year 2015 assumes that all TIP projects are implemented. For year 2005, the TIP network excludes projects that are shown for construction in the post 2004 column of the 1999-04 TIP. All non-exempt projects were modeled, as well as a number of exempt projects that will affect intersection capacities. The TIP network was modeled with and without the reductions in VMT expected with the implementation of the New Visions plan. In addition, the year 2015 full plan scenario was modeled that includes TIP projects plus additional economic development and congestion management projects, as well as VMT reduction that would result from the full implementation of the New Visions plan. The analysis for the 1999-04 TIP is very similar to the previous analysis done for the 1997-02 TIP. The analysis for the 1999-04 TIP modifies the previous analysis by reflecting the impacts of the new projects added to the TIP.

EPA's Mobile Model 5B emission rates for hydrocarbons and NOx were applied on a link by link basis using speed and VMT estimates developed in the STEP model for each scenario. VMT was increased by ten percent in all scenarios to reflect summer traffic volumes, since the highest levels of ozone are usually detected in the summer months. The Mobile Model 5B reflect the most current New York State SIP proposals for upstate non-attainment. New York State is proposing the implementation of an anti-tampering inspection program with a gas cap pressure check.

New Bridge Projects: Several new bridge projects were added to the HBRR program. These projects were determined to be exempt projects for air quality planning purposes and their emissions impacts were not evaluated.

Replacement of Three Upstate Transit Buses in Saratoga County, SA134: Funding was added to the fifth year of this project, which is an exempt project for air quality planning purposes. Because this action will provide for the continuation of an existing service, no new emission impacts were assumed to result.

ITS Operating Costs, RG37: This action provides for on-going operating costs for an existing project. RG37 is a non-exempt project for air quality purposes that was previously included in the emissions impact analysis.

ITS Local Traffic Signal Set-Aside, RG39: This action distributes an additional $0.8M over several years of project RG39, which is a non-exempt project for air quality purposes. The emissions impacts of improving and coordinating 12 representative signals were estimated using the CDTC STEP Model and added to the results.

Commuter Rail Demonstration, RG79: This project is exempt for air quality planning purposes. Because it is a demonstration project, it was not considered to be in place in the future years of 2005 and 2015.

Set-Aside for New Visions Contingencies for Existing Projects, RG82: This project is exempt for air quality planning purposes.

Set-Aside for High Priority Enhancement Projects, RG83: This project is exempt for air quality planning purposes.

Table 6 presents the results of the emission modeling of the TIP and the New Visions plan impacts. Table 6 indicates that although vehicle miles of travel are forecast to increase in the Capital District between 1996 and the year 2015, hydrocarbon and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions will be reduced under all scenarios because of reduced vehicle emission rates. Compared to the "no-build" scenario, hydrocarbon and NOx emissions will be reduced by the "TIP Network Only" scenario, and further reduced by the "Full TIP Scenario". Analogous findings also result for the year 2005. The analysis demonstrated that full implementation of the New Visions plan would result in the lowest emissions of any scenario tested.

The analysis described above indicates that the CDTC 1999-04 Transportation Improvement Program would satisfactorily meet the previous requirements of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments regarding the conformity of transportation programs. The analysis demonstrates that emission levels of hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides -- the precursors to ozone formation -- are less for the TIP and New Visions plan implementation scenarios in year 2005, and in year 2015, relative to the "no-build" condition, and are dramatically lower than 1990 or 1996 emission levels.

1. The "full TIP" includes the TIP network as well as the VMT reduction that would result from the implementation of the financially constrained New Visions plan. The TIP as programmed represents comparable progress across all New Visions plan initiatives at "steady state" funding levels.
2. "Year 2015 with full New Visions Plan" includes TIP projects plus additional economic development and congestion management projects, as well as VMT reduction that would result from the full implementation of the New Visions plan.