Trend Conditions

Text Box: Previous commitments are not sufficient to counter-act long-term trends.Table 1 presents 1990 and 2000 values and future results of the original New Visions trends in a summary fashion.  This impact summary is presented in terms of change from 1990 and is based on CDTC and CDRPC's mid-1990's forecasts of stable employment, modest population growth, and further suburbanization of development.  Continuing increases in travel demand were forecast, but at a slower rate of growth than in the 1980's.  The challenge that the goals present can be seen by the performance forecasts of future conditions contained in Table 1.  Without a high degree of success in implementing the New Visions plan most performance indicators were "headed south" in coming years.

 

Year-2015 and 2021 conditions would be even worse than shown Table 1 if previous commitments are not carried out.  Overall, even with the previous commitments, the performance of the Capital District's transportation would decline if the demographic, land use and travel behavior forecasts proved correct.  This is most dramatic for congestion, but equally alarming in terms of resource requirements and land use impacts.  Ever-increasing travel would be difficult to absorb in the existing transportation system without loss of options and loss of mobility.  This is true although the CDRPC forecasts indicate relatively modest population and employment growth.  The impacts of the transportation system decline would be harder to ignore -- they would impact daily lives, budgets, economic vitality and quality of life.

 

Should the Capital District not be able to maintain a stable economy, future conditions would be much different.  Vitality and quality of life in urban areas would substantially decline while suburban congestion and land consumption measures will still likely be worse than in 1990.  This very undesirable future underscores the need for CDTC's transportation plan and related public and private policy to invest in ways that support a healthy economy and community vitality throughout the region.

 

A more detailed explanation of the original assumptions and data sources used in estimating performance measures appears in the New Visions Workbook Technical Appendix, available on request.

 


Table 1: System Performance Measures -- Summary of Existing and Trend Conditions

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Qualitative

 

Year 2021

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2015 Trend

Summary

2021 Trend

New Visions

 

Selected Core Measures

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1990

1996

2000

Growth

2015 Trend

Growth

Full Plan

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Conditions

Conditions

Conditions

Conditions

Impacts

Conditions

Implementation

 

Transportation Service

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCESS

Percent of PM Peak Hour Trips Transit Accessible

 

 

 

 

18.60%

na

na

15.20%

rr

na

na

*

 

Percent of PM Peak Hour Trips With Transit Advantage

 

 

 

 

0.40%

na

na

0.33%

rr

na

na

*

 

Percent of PM Peak Hour Trips Accessible by Bicycle

 

 

 

 

28.9% (1995)

na

na

26.4%

r

na

na

*

ACCESSIBILITY

Travel Time between Representative Locations;

 

 

 

 

59

64

69

78

rrr

83

73

 

 

   see Appendix;   Sample Time:  Selkirk Yards

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   to Saratoga Springs (minutes, PM Peak)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*

CONGESTION

Daily Recurring Excess Person Hours of Delay

 

 

 

 

6,546

16,999

26,344

34,298

rrrr

52,354

22,870

*

 

Excess Person Hours of Peak Hour Delay Per PMT

 

 

 

 

1.1

2.4

3.2

4.0

rrrr

5.4

2.9

*

 

Daily Excess Vehicle Hours of Delay by Truck

 

 

 

 

125

357

553

732

rrrr

1,099

480

*

FLEXIBILITY

Reserve Capacity on the Urban Expressway and Arterial

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

         System (PM Peak Hour Vehicle Miles of Capacity)

 

 

 

 

855,008

772,039

696,552

628,781

rrr

594,146

712,453

*

Resource Requirements

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SAFETY

Estimated Annual Societal Cost of Transportation

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Accidents, Millions of Dollars ($M)

 

 

 

 

$510

$685

$810

$1,053

rrrr

$1,179

$874

*

ENERGY

Daily Fuel Consumption (thousands of gallons)

 

 

 

 

880

na

na

1080

rrr

na

na

*

ECONOMIC

Annual Vehicle Ownership and Operating Costs for

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

      COST

   Autos and Trucks, Millions of Dollars ($M)

 

 

 

 

$696

$815

$901

$1,066

rrrr

$1,129

$951

*

 

Other Monetary Costs of Transport: Highway and

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   Transit Facilities and Service, Parking Facilities,

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   Environmental Damage, Millions of Dollars ($M)

 

 

 

 

$779 M

na

na

$1,020 M

rrr

na

na

*

External Effects

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AIR QUALITY

Daily Hydrocarbon (HC) Emissions (kg)

 

 

 

 

47,632

                           40,840

na

18,002

aaaa

na

na

*

 

Daily Nitrogen Oxide (NOx) Emissions (kg)

 

 

 

 

53,661

                           46,023

na

30,846

aaa

na

na

*

LAND USE

Residential Use Traffic Conflict: Miles at LOC "E" or "F"

 

 

 

 

82.4

na

na

126.0

rrrr

na

na

*

 

Arterial Land Access Conflict: Miles at LOC "E" or "F"

 

 

 

 

29.9

na

na

49.5

rrrr

na

na

*

 

Dislocation of Existing Residences and Businesses

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

29

r

29

29

*

 

Community Quality of Life-  Factors that reflect

 

 

 

 

Trends include warning

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

community quality of life in the central cities,

 

 

 

 

signals.  Proactive strategies

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

inner suburbs, outer suburbs, small cities and

 

 

 

 

will be required to impact

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

villages, and rural areas.

 

 

 

 

trends.

 

 

 

r

 

 

 

ENVIRONMENTAL

Number of Major Environmental Issues to be

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

      Resolved to Implement Existing Commitments

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

21

r

21

21

*

ECONOMIC

How does the transportation system support the

 

 

 

 

Transportation makes

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

          economic health of the region?

 

 

 

 

possible much of the

 

 

 

r

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

region's economic activity.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

aaaa

Positive impact greater than 50%, 2015 relative to 1990.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

aaa

Positive impact between 20% and 50%.

 

 

 

 

 

6.

Trips are considered to have a transit advantage if they can

 

 

 

aa

Positive impact between 10 and 20%.

 

 

 

 

 

 

be made faster by transit than by auto (door to door).

 

 

 

a

Positive impact less than 10% or not quantified.

 

 

 

 

 

7.

Trips are considered to be accessible by bicycle if they are

 

 

 

 

Negligible impact expected.

 

 

 

 

 

 

within a reasonable distance by routes that can be travelled

 

 

 

r

Negative impact less than 10% or not quantified.

 

 

 

 

 

 

by bicycle.

 

 

 

 

 

rr

Negative impact between 10 and 20%.

 

 

 

 

 

8.

Hydrocarbon and Nitrogen Oxide emissions are derived from

 

 

 

rrr

Negative impact between 20 and 50%.

 

 

 

 

 

 

the MOBILE5A emissions model based on levels of vehicle

 

 

 

rrrr

Negative impact greater than 50%, 2015 relative to 1990.

 

 

 

 

 

 

travel, speed and congestion.

 

 

 

 

*

Indicates impact has been quantified.

 

 

 

 

 

9.

Residential Traffic Conflict: Miles at Level of

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Compatibility (LOC) "E" or "F" refers to the number of miles

 

 

 

Notes:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

of major arterials with this rating.   The LOC index was

 

 

 

1.

Trend growth conditions correspond to trend traffic growth and

 

 

 

 

 

developed based on an inventory of residential driveways on

 

 

 

 

only partial implementation of the New Visions plan.

 

 

 

 

 

 

major arterials and traffic volumes.  LOC "E" or"F" ratings

 

 

 

2.

Recurring delay refers to delay experienced under normal

 

 

 

 

 

 

occur at arterial segments with frequent residential

 

 

 

 

traffic conditions, without incidents or unusual weather

 

 

 

 

 

 

driveways and higher traffic volumes.

 

 

 

 

 

conditions.

 

 

 

 

 

 

10.

Arterial Land Access Conflict: Miles at Level of

 

 

 

3.

Non-recurring delay refers to delay that results from

 

 

 

 

 

 

Compatibility (LOC) "E" or "F" refers to the number of miles

 

 

 

 

incidents, weather conditions, or special events.

 

 

 

 

 

 

of major arterials with this rating.   The LOC index was

 

 

 

4.

Excess delay refers to the amount of delay that occurs at

 

 

 

 

 

 

developed based on an inventory of commercial driveways on

 

 

 

 

level of service "E" or "F". 

 

 

 

 

 

 

major arterials and traffic volumes.  LOC "E" or"F" ratings

 

 

 

5.

Trips are considered transit accessible if the trip can be

 

 

 

 

 

 

occur at arterial segments with frequent commercial

 

 

 

 

made in a reasonable time, relative to the auto travel time

 

 

 

 

 

 

driveways and higher traffic volumes.

 

 

 

 

 

(door to door).