Trend Conditions

Table 1 presents 1990 and 2000 values and future results of the original New Visions trends in a summary fashion. This impact summary is presented in terms of change from 1990 and is based on CDTC and CDRPC's mid-1990's forecasts of stable employment, modest population growth, and further suburbanization of development. Continuing increases in travel demand were forecast, but at a slower rate of growth than in the 1980's. The challenge that the goals present can be seen by the performance forecasts of future conditions contained in Table 1. Without a high degree of success in implementing the New Visions plan most performance indicators were "headed south" in coming years.

Year-2015 and 2021 conditions would be even worse than shown Table 1 if previous commitments are not carried out. Overall, even with the previous commitments, the performance of the Capital District's transportation would decline if the demographic, land use and travel behavior forecasts proved correct. This is most dramatic for congestion, but equally alarming in terms of resource requirements and land use impacts. Ever-increasing travel would be difficult to absorb in the existing transportation system without loss of options and loss of mobility. This is true although the CDRPC forecasts indicate relatively modest population and employment growth. The impacts of the transportation system decline would be harder to ignore -- they would impact daily lives, budgets, economic vitality and quality of life.

Should the Capital District not be able to maintain a stable economy, future conditions would be much different. Vitality and quality of life in urban areas would substantially decline while suburban congestion and land consumption measures will still likely be worse than in 1990. This very undesirable future underscores the need for CDTC's transportation plan and related public and private policy to invest in ways that support a healthy economy and community vitality throughout the region.

A more detailed explanation of the original assumptions and data sources used in estimating performance measures appears in the New Visions Workbook Technical Appendix, available on request.

Table 1: System Performance Measures -- Summary of Existing and Trend Conditions

						Qualitative		Year 2021
					2015 Trend	Summary	2021 Trend	New Visions
Selected Core Measures		1990	1996	2000	Growth	2015 Trend	Growth	Full Plan
		Conditions	Conditions	Conditions	Conditions	Impacts	Conditions	Implementation
Transportation Service
ACCESS	Percent of PM Peak Hour Trips Transit Accessible	18.60%	na	na	15.20%	rr	na	na	*
	Percent of PM Peak Hour Trips With Transit Advantage	0.40%	na	na	0.33%	rr	na	na	*
	Percent of PM Peak Hour Trips Accessible by Bicycle	28.9% (1995)	na	na	26.4%	r	na	na	*
ACCESSIBILITY	Travel Time between Representative Locations;	59	64	69	78	rrr	83	73
	see Appendix; Sample Time: Selkirk Yards
	to Saratoga Springs (minutes, PM Peak)								*
CONGESTION	Daily Recurring Excess Person Hours of Delay	6,546	16,999	26,344	34,298	rrrr	52,354	22,870	*
	Excess Person Hours of Peak Hour Delay Per PMT	1.1	2.4	3.2	4.0	rrrr	5.4	2.9	*
	Daily Excess Vehicle Hours of Delay by Truck	125	357	553	732	rrrr	1,099	480	*
FLEXIBILITY	Reserve Capacity on the Urban Expressway and Arterial
	System (PM Peak Hour Vehicle Miles of Capacity)	855,008	772,039	696,552	628,781	rrr	594,146	712,453	*
Resource Requirements
SAFETY	Estimated Annual Societal Cost of Transportation