CAPITAL DISTRICT CONTEXT

The Capital District is comprised of the four counties surrounding Albany -- the capital of New York State. A map of the region appears in Figure 1.

Historic Changes 1970-2000

The Capital District has experienced dramatic growth in travel in the last decade. Travel during the afternoon peak hour increased by 37 percent between 1980 and 1990. In the twenty-year period from 1970 to 1990, peak hour travel increased by 86 percent. Specific examples of this growth in travel include the following increases in average annual daily traffic (AADT) from 1985 to 1991:

· the Northway at the Mohawk River went from 45,500 to 69,900;

· I-787 (Wards Lane to NY 378) increased from 45,500 to 72,700; and

· the Thruway (Exit 24 to 25) increased from 37,000 to 52,900.

The growth in travel has resulted in part from regional increases in population, households and employment. But between 1980 and 1990 regional population increased by only 5 percent, while travel increased by 38 percent; households increased by 10 percent and employment increased by 20 percent. Other variables contributed to travel growth, such as automobile ownership and gasoline costs per mile. The number of vehicles in the Capital District more than doubled between 1970 and 1990 while the cost of gasoline per gallon actually declined by 4 percent in constant dollars. The cost of gasoline per mile decreased by 40 percent in constant dollars between 1970 and 1990. Gasoline cost per mile traveled has been decreasing (discounting inflation) until recently because the cost of fuel has grown more slowly than inflation and the fleet has become more fuel efficient. Fuel cost per mile is difficult to predict. In spite of the dramatic and rapid increase in gas prices that has been experienced in the year 2000, the true cost of fuel per mile (after inflation) is still less than in the early 1980's. To date, there have been no indications that rising gasoline prices have caused people to drive less.

The location of growth in households and employment has also influenced travel. The suburbanization of employment has continued to the point that employment in the central cities (Albany, Schenectady, Troy, and Saratoga Springs) was exceeded by employment in the remainder of the four counties by 1990. Thus, work trips to suburban locations have increased. Saratoga County has experienced the fastest growth in population, households and employment, which has contributed to increases in travel demand in north-south corridors, most notably the Northway.

Figure 1: The Capital Region

In addition, retail and other service industries have followed households to the suburbs. The 1990 Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey documents dramatic increases in overall personal trip making, with the largest growing portion being "non-work" related trips.

The dramatic growth in Capital District car travel has not been matched by other modes. (See Figure 2.) According to the U.S. Census, between 1970 and 1990, commuting to work by single occupant vehicle increased by 86 percent while commuting in a carpool declined by 32 percent. Commuting by transit and walking declined (by 16 percent and 24 percent respectively). Those who worked at home increased 14 percent over twenty years. These trends by mode are comparable to national trends.

For the 2021 plan update, traffic counts throughout the 1990's were reviewed and compared with STEP Model estimates. The STEP Model forecast an average annual growth rate of 2.5% for the 1990's for PM peak hour VMT. For the first eight years of the decade, daily VMT on the State touring routes increased at an average annual rate of 1.9%. While more detailed analysis will be conducted in Phase 2 of the plan update, the Travel Task Force concluded that the fact that VMT growth has on average been lower than forecast lends credibility to the New Visions plan assumption that traffic growth could be dampened with plan implementation.

Figure 2: Capital District Work Trip By Mode

Potential Changes 2000-2021

Travel forecasts were developed for the years 2000, 2015 and 2021 using the CDTC Systematic Traffic Evaluation and Planning (STEP) Model. The results are documented in Analysis of Year 2000 Congestion Levels in Critical Corridors of the Capital District and the Travel Task Force Phase 1 Report.

Year 2000, 2015 and 2021 trip generation was developed by zone based on Capital District Regional Planning Commission (CDRPC) forecasts of households and employment. The trip generation rates that were used are documented in CDTC's Local Travel Parameters report. Trip distribution and traffic assignment were developed using the CDTC STEP model. Trip distribution was developed to be consistent with projections of travel in CDTC's Forecasts of Regional Traffic Growth For Use in Year-2000 Needs Estimate. With an assumption that household vehicle availability in the Capital District will reach saturation by year 2010 (there will be at least one car per licensed driver), travel growth was projected to slow somewhat after the year 2000. The resulting projections of traffic, population, households, employment, and vehicles summarized below, represent a plausible baseline forecast to the year 2015 based on recent trends in travel. While population, households and employment are projected to grow between 9 and 12 percent from 1990 to 2015, travel is projected to grow 49 percent in that thirty five year period. Between 1990 and year 2000, travel is forecast to increase 2.4 percent per year; the baseline forecast from year 2000 to year 2015 indicates an annual growth rate of 1.1 percent per year.

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Figure 4: Capital Region Travel Parameters

VMT = Vehicle Miles Traveled

The predicted increase in travel in the baseline forecast is expected to result from three nearly equal factors:

1. additional activity (more households and employment);

2. increased vehicle trip making for existing activity; and

3. increased average trip lengths as the Capital District continues to develop suburban land.

Based on CDRPC forecasts, between 1990 and 2015 the four counties will each experience similar percentage growth in employment (between 11 and 16 percent). However, Albany County will have the largest net growth in employment since it starts from the largest base level. Approximately half of the region's growth in employment is projected to occur in Albany County (23,344 out of 44,528 new jobs).

Albany County will still have the largest number of households, while Saratoga County will experience the largest growth in households. Almost fifty percent of the region's growth in households (16,900 out of 35,123) is expected to occur in Saratoga County.

Figure 5, Figure 6, and Figure 7 illustrate this projected growth in households, employment, and travel, respectively. These figures readily show that overall regional growth is small in comparison to baseline figures, and thus trend development scenarios are based on modest incremental growth in the region. While the number of trips generated will depend in part on growth in households and employment, all four counties are projected to experience growth in trips in similar proportions:

· 35 percent in Albany;

· 34 percent in Rensselaer;

· 46 percent in Saratoga; and

· 31 percent in Schenectady.

It is expected that suburban employment will continue to grow at a faster rate than central city employment. Suburban employment, because it tends to be more geographically dispersed, is more difficult to serve with transit. Almost all of the household growth is forecast to occur outside of the central cities. The growth in trips, which depends on households and employment as well as other variables, will be much greater outside the central cities. While central city trips are projected to increase by 25 percent, trips outside of the central cities will grow by 42 percent.

Annual growth trends between 2015 and 2021 are expected to be comparable to annual trends forecast from 2000 to 2021. Higher growth scenarios are possible and were tested by the Travel Task Force. The Task Force concluded that the STEP Model trend forecasts were the most appropriate for use in evaluating trend conditions; and that the STEP Model New Visions forecasts are the most appropriate for use in the plan. Historic VMT growth and VMT growth forecast under several scenarios is portrayed in Figure 6A.

None of these trends is unique to the Capital District. We mirror national trends. The choice of how to respond to them, however, provides room to pursue options tailored to local circumstances. CDTC's New Visions effort identifies a plan of action that best suits the Capital District -- a plan that builds upon the area's unique strengths. Among these strengths are:

· numerous small, walkable communities;

· a capable and increasingly entrepreneurial public transportation provider (CDTA);

· the generally high level of service provided by the highway system;

· the established partnering attitude at the New York State Department of Transportation, Region 1;

· a strong history of cooperative transportation planning through CDTC and the Capital District Regional Planning Commission (CDRPC); and

· heightened public awareness of the importance of regional intergovernmental cooperation.

These strengths should be the envy of most metropolitan areas of the nation. They also provide the basis for the region to confront the challenges of coming years successfully. CDTC's choice is to foster investments that improve the region's economic, social and physical health while enhancing the quality of life in the area. Within this approach, CDTC's New Visions plan identifies the means to those ends.

Figure 5: Projected Household Growth

Figure 6: Projected Employment Growth

Figure 7: Projected Travel Growth